In 2016, the use of hydraulic control quick closing valve was better than that of imported brands. The market demand of oil, natural gas, energy and power industry accounted for more than 40% of the global industrial valve market demand. Therefore, the development prospect of valve industry is mainly analyzed from the market demand of the downstream industries of the above two valves.

1. Development prospect of oil and gas valve Market

According to the estimation of U.S. energy information administration, global energy consumption will increase by 53% from 2008 to 2035, and oil and natural gas will still account for 52% of the total energy consumption before 2035. New energy can not completely replace traditional fossil energy in a short time. Therefore, the global crude oil demand and exploitation will remain basically stable. This will play a strong supporting role in the growth of valve demand in the field of oil and gas acquisition.

The continuous growth of oil and gas production and demand will help maintain the investment in oil and gas pipeline infrastructure at a high level. According to the forecast data of Douglas Westwood, an independent research consultant in the energy field, global energy demand is expected to grow by 35% in the next 20 years, and natural gas consumption will account for 26% of total energy consumption in 2030. From 2013 to 2017, the global investment in land pipeline projects will reach US $216 billion, and the length of new oil and gas pipelines will reach 270000 km. The large investment in oil and gas pipelines will promote the continuous expansion of the demand for industrial valves for oil and gas pipelines, especially for large-diameter valves.

The sustained and rapid growth of China's economy has pushed up China's energy demand. China has become the world's second largest oil consumer in 2003, and its oil consumption has approached that of the United States. Under these conditions, the growth of China's oil and natural gas consumption has obviously exceeded that of its output, and the gap between supply and demand is widening. From 2000 to 2011, the annual compound growth rate of domestic crude oil consumption was 6.9%, while the annual compound growth rate of domestic crude oil production was only 2.1%. During the same period, the annual compound growth rate of domestic natural gas consumption was 16.5%, and the annual compound growth rate of production was 12.6%.

The increasing gap between supply and demand has resulted in China's increasing dependence on foreign oil and natural gas for economic growth. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in 2010, 2011 and 2012, China's crude oil imports were 239.31 million tons, 253.78 million tons and 271.02 million tons, an increase of 17.5%, 6.0% and 6.8% respectively over the same period of last year, while the imports of liquefied natural gas were 9.36 million tons, 12.21 million tons and 14.68 million tons, an increase of 69.1%, 30.4% and 20.3% respectively over the same period of last year.

As an important form of oil and gas transportation, oil and gas pipeline has many advantages, such as low leakage, low pollution, high efficiency and so on. It can solve the problem that China's oil and gas import mainly depends on sea transportation and improve the energy security environment. Therefore, it has become an important part of China's energy strategy. In the future, China will gradually form an oil and gas import pipeline transportation pattern dominated by Northeast China Russia oil and gas pipeline, Northwest China Kazakhstan oil and gas pipeline and southwest China Myanmar oil and gas pipeline.

In addition, China's domestic energy supply and energy demand distribution in the region there is a large gap. Oil and natural gas resources are mainly concentrated in Northeast, North and Northwest China. Tarim, Qaidam, Shaanxi Gansu Ningxia and Sichuan basins are rich in natural gas resources, accounting for more than 80% of the country's onshore natural gas resources. The demand for energy is mainly concentrated in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast. Oil and gas resources need to be transported continuously from northeast, North China and northwest to southeast coastal areas. The traditional road, railway and sea transportation has the characteristics of low single traffic volume, more leakage and heavy pollution, which is difficult to meet the demand of domestic energy trans regional allocation. It has become a strategic choice in China's energy field to build a perfect domestic oil and gas transportation pipeline network to meet the demand of domestic energy cross regional allocation. A series of major projects including the first, second and third lines of West to east gas transmission have been successively implemented or completed and put into operation. The fourth and fifth lines will also be invested and constructed. In the future, the demand for domestic oil and gas pipeline transportation will further increase.

The demand for pipeline transportation has stimulated the explosive growth of domestic oil and gas pipeline construction. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the length of China's oil and gas pipeline increased from 27600 km in 2001 to 93000 km in the first half of 2012. However, the overall length of domestic oil and gas pipelines is still at a low level. In the future, China will build a large number of domestic pipelines to connect with overseas oil and gas import pipelines, and form a more systematic oil and gas transmission network in China. By 2015, the total length of China's oil and gas pipelines is expected to reach about 140000 km, and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" will be implemented

During this period, the investment in oil and gas pipelines will remain at a high level, and the market demand for related valves will also realize the excellent use of hydraulic quick closing valves in 2016 and the rapid growth of imported brands.

In addition, with the increasing shortage of conventional oil and gas resources, shale gas, as an unconventional natural gas resource, has gradually become one of the new generation of alternative energy. According to the results of resource assessment of 95 shale gas basins in 41 countries outside the United States conducted by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in June 2013, the world's technically recoverable shale gas reserves are more than 207 trillion cubic meters, of which China's technically recoverable shale gas reserves are 32 trillion cubic meters, ranking the first in the world. In August 2011, China's first shale gas horizontal well located in Sichuan started pilot production, which is an important step in China's shale gas development process. According to the shale gas development plan (2011-2015), China's shale gas production target during the 12th Five Year Plan period is 6.5 billion cubic meters, and the shale gas production will strive to reach 60-100 billion cubic meters in 2020. With the start and rapid development of shale gas exploitation in China, the purification and transportation of shale gas will bring a large number of valves.

2. Development prospect of energy power valve Market

According to the world energy outlook? From 2012 to 2035, the total investment needed to meet the estimated energy demand is US $37 trillion, with an average annual investment of 1.5% of global GDP. Structurally, the investment in the power industry amounts to US $17 trillion. Regionally, more than half of the global energy investment demand comes from developing countries.

At present, China's electricity consumption is second only to the United States, and it is the second largest power consumer in the world, with a total electricity consumption of 4.96 trillion kwh in 2012. The continuous improvement of China's economic level and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization will lead to the rise of domestic power consumption. According to KPMG's forecast in 2010, the investment required by China's power industry in the next 20 years will be as high as US $2.77 trillion, equivalent to one fourth of the total investment in the global energy industry in the same period. The International Energy Agency predicts that China's power investment will account for 23% of the world's total from 2005 to 2030.

A large amount of energy investment at home and abroad will drive the use of industrial hydraulic quick closing valves in the field of energy and power in 2016 and the significant growth of the demand for imported brands.

As the development direction of new energy, nuclear power field will also produce a large number of industrial valve demand. According to the general situation of China's electric power industry in 2012 issued by the China Federation of electric power enterprises, at the end of 2012, China's nuclear power installed capacity accounted for 1.10% of the total installed capacity, and nuclear power generation accounted for 1.97% of the total power generation. There is still a big gap with the average level of 17% of the global nuclear power countries. In the world's major developed countries, nuclear power has become one of the main sources of power. As of November 2011, France's nuclear power accounted for 79% of the total power generation, South Korea's accounted for 30%, Germany's accounted for 19%, Japan's accounted for 16%, the United States accounted for 19%, and Russia's accounted for 16% (source: International Energy agency-iea). Compared with developed countries, China's nuclear power industry has a great development space.

According to the medium and long term development plan for nuclear power (2005-2020) officially issued in October 2007, China will build about 32 nuclear power plants by 2020, with an installed nuclear power capacity of 40 million kilowatts in operation and 18 million kilowatts for projects under construction, accounting for 4% of the total installed power capacity in China《 The introduction of the medium and long term development plan for nuclear power (2005-2020) indicates that China's nuclear power development strategy has changed from "moderate development" to "active promotion". In terms of the policy of localization of nuclear power equipment, the medium and long term development plan for nuclear power (2005-2020) emphasizes the need to "accelerate the autonomy of nuclear power equipment manufacturing, focus on breaking through the design and manufacturing technology of key equipment, and strive to improve the production capacity of complete sets of equipment". According to preliminary estimates, a nuclear power plant with two 1 million kilowatt units can use about 28000 valves.

In March 2011, the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan exposed some weak links in nuclear power safety, which had a far-reaching impact on the global nuclear power industry. Countries have learned from the lessons of the Fukushima nuclear accident and taken various measures to improve the safety of domestic nuclear power production. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, China has taken measures such as comprehensive safety inspection and suspending approval of new nuclear power projects before the release of national nuclear safety plan《 According to the medium and long term development plan of nuclear power (2011-2020), only a few fully demonstrated nuclear power project sites will be arranged in coastal areas during the 12th Five Year Plan period, and no inland nuclear power projects will be arranged. In the long run, nuclear power is still the inevitable choice for China to ensure energy supply and adjust energy structure. According to the national strategic emerging industry development plan for the 12th Five Year Plan issued by the State Council in July 2012, nuclear power as a new energy industry, China will strengthen the research on nuclear power safety, nuclear fuel reprocessing and waste disposal technology, and carry out the development of safe operation technology and life extension technology of the second generation of nuclear power in operation on the premise of ensuring safety, Accelerate the digestion, absorption and re innovation of the third generation nuclear power technology, and carry out the construction of the third generation nuclear power station as a whole. By 2015, we will master advanced nuclear power technology, improve the manufacturing capacity of complete sets of equipment, and realize the independent development of nuclear power; The installed capacity of nuclear power operation has reached 40 million kilowatts, and the manufacturing capacity of nuclear power equipment, including the third generation, has stabilized at more than 10 million kilowatts. Therefore, under the premise of strengthening nuclear safety supervision in the future, the direction of rapid development of China's nuclear power industry and localization of nuclear power equipment will not change, and the domestic demand for nuclear power valves will continue to grow steadily.